Professor Natali Helberger and Dr. Hannes Cools attended the Digital Growth Summit run by Twipe in Brussels. The summit was centered around the impact of Generative AI on the news industry and predominantly brought together a very international mix of editors-in-chiefs, CEOs, data managers, strategists and product owners. Professor Helberger and Dr. Cools share three insights from the Future Scenario Writing Workshop at the summit.
Thinking about the future can be challenging for the news industry. The rapid pace of the news cycle means that today’s headlines quickly become yesterday’s news, and what seems relevant now may feel distant and outdated in a matter of weeks. In such a fast-moving environment, it’s hard to predict how technology, audience behavior, and global events will shape the industry even in the near future.
In order to get news organizations thinking about the future in a more substantial way, Professor Helberger has written a paper that proposes a potential scenario of the newsroom of the future, which is titled ‘FutureNewsCorp, or how the AI Act changed the future of news’. During her presentation at the Digital Growth Summit, she described a future in 2024 when traditional media companies will be replaced by specialized media technology companies, that act as a one-stop-shop for all the technical services needed to produce and distribute news content. The role of journalists, editors and journalist collectives is to gather the raw data and upload content for further processing by FutureNewsCorp, a company that consists of employees with profiles such as data scientists, developers, UX-designers, immersive journalists, and futurologists. By imagining this rather dystopian scenario of a future news corporation, Professor Helberger wanted to encourage and provoke the news industry to imagine possible futures for themselves.
Why future scenario writing matters
Scenarios are powerful tools that help organizations navigate uncertainty by exploring a range of possible future contexts. Unlike predictions, which aim to foresee a single outcome, scenarios offer divergent, extreme, and probable visions of the future, pushing decision-makers to think beyond their usual assumptions (see image).
They are rooted in analysis but presented as vivid stories that make future possibilities feel tangible, which can capture a broad and diverse set of perspectives on an issue. By challenging the “official future,” scenarios encourage organizations to stretch their thinking, confront both optimistic and pessimistic views, and identify new risks and opportunities.
The proliferation of generative AI technology in 2022 has made future scenario writing an increasingly important method and tool for the news industry to imagine where their organizations might go. This year, the AI in Journalism Futures project from the Open Society Foundations (OSF) opened a call for the news industry to imagine the future and received more than 800 people who wrote and submitted short scenarios, which highlights an increasing interest in future scenario thinking. Additionally, Professor of Computational Journalism, Nicholas Diakopoulos from Northwestern University has analyzed these scenarios on how the news industry imagines itself in the future and concluded that these scenarios are “not entirely homogeneous but are rather related to the individual perspectives and specific ecosystems of habitation that scenario writers bring to the task”.
Three Lessons from the Future Scenario Writing Workshop
After Professor Helberger’s presentation on FutureNewsCorp, there was a workshop where editors-in-chiefs, CEOs, data managers, and product owners, among others, were reflecting upon this scenario. Some of the questions included: ‘How plausible is the scenario?’, ‘How serious is the depicted impact for yourself and for your organization?’ and ‘What are the mitigation strategies of regarding the impact on your organization?’ Based on the workshop, they share three insights.
- The scenario of FutureNewsCorp 2043 was considered very plausible
The participants of the workshop found the FutureNewsCorp scenario very plausible and far less futuristic given current trends in AI and the digital transformation of the news industry. The increasing integration of data scientists, UX designers, immersive journalists, and futurologists in such companies speaks to the ongoing convergence of technology and storytelling and the way many media organisations are faced with the question of whether to develop core technologies themselves, or procure from large technology companies. In many ways, participants mentioned that this vision mirrors developments we are already witnessing, where they referred to TikTok and OpenAI as prominent examples. Regarding the potential mitigation strategies, some participants mentioned that they need to make sure they become FutureNewsCorp, rather than thinking about ways in which such conglomerates are not possible. Participants also highlighted the importance of procuring responsibly and joining forces between different media groups for joint innovation and better bargaining power.
- There’s no such thing as ‘the audience’
From the discussion on how the FutureNewsCorp scenario impacts the individual and the organization, there was a realization that the concept of a monolithic ‘audience’ does not exist. Participants stated that their news organizations should dare to move away from old and more traditional mass communication strategies and adopt more dynamic, multi-faceted engagement methods that cater to the diverse and constantly evolving needs of smaller, more targeted audiences. The fast advances in generative AI have also unleashed a new wave of re-thinking personalization, from personalized distribution strategies to customized content and presentation formats. Understanding the audience and responding to this fragmentation was mentioned as a crucial mitigation strategy to remain relevant and maintain trust with consumers in the future.
- Re-investing in brand identity is key
Participants mentioned that consumers are likely to place more emphasis on the ethos behind the news source rather than just the content itself. A clear, consistent, and trustworthy brand identity will be the cornerstone of audience loyalty. Participants observed that FutureNewsCorp highlights that while technology can enhance efficiency and reach, it is ultimately the human element—values, credibility, and identity—that will drive the relationship between news organizations and their audiences. Maintaining and re-investing in a strong brand identity is essential not only for differentiation but also for building long-term trust.
Despite the fact that Future Scenario Writing is gaining more attention, Professor Helberger and Dr. Cools see that it remains challenging for the news industry to imagine probable futures and how to mitigate these futures. For most, thinking in terms of long-term scenarios is not yet ingrained as a standard method for strategic planning. Additionally, they observe that editors-in-chiefs, CEOs, data managers, and product owners, among others, are often preoccupied with the immediate pressures of the fast-moving news cycle, leaving little time or resources to contemplate broader, more distant possibilities. Some participants therefore also suggested developing internal task forces or strategy groups to be better able to anticipate the future.
If you are curious about how to start such a future scenario workshop in your organization, Professor Helberger and Dr. Cools decided to share their slidedeck. In doing so, they hope that it can help you or your organization to start the discussion on the possible, probable and plausible future scenarios. Special thanks to Dr. Kimon Kieslich for his support and input.
